Will XRP reach $1000? Let's be logical
Most people will just give you baseless predictions, such as XRP will go to a $1000 and we will all be millionaires! Not me. I will show you guys HOW to think and make predictions that have reasoning!
This is my first ever newsletter and I'm really excited to share this with you as it contains LOTS of information and not just that... I will show you HOW to think analytically for yourself.
I will assume you are aware of XRP already, so let’s dive right into the technical analysis.
Price history
At the time of writing, XRP is at $0.51, but it has shown remarkable growth in previous bull markets, peaking at $0.06 in 2013, $3.2 in 2017, and $2 in 2021. Although it didn’t set a new all-time high in 2021, likely due to regulatory challenges, it made a historic comeback by overcoming these hurdles in its recent win over the SEC.
Now the question you’re all here for - what price could it reach in the next bull market? Let’s start off by explaining how we can predict this.
How to predict XRP's price
We will take the following steps:
Figure Out Bitcoin’s Price: Start by figuring out where Bitcoin might go in the next bull market
Find XRP’s Price in Bitcoin Terms: Next, see what the price of XRP could be in terms of Bitcoin
Do the Math: Multiply the predicted Bitcoin price by the predicted XRP/BTC price.
Why this way? Well, Bitcoin's price in dollars has been more predictable than other assets because its highs and lows have followed a certain pattern over time. I even have a tool that helps me calculate potential Bitcoin highs and lows. If you want to know more about this tool, shoot me a DM on Twitter/X!
To keep things brief, let me just tell you that the tool predicts Bitcoin could hit around $160k in 2025. Now we need to figure out what the XRP/BTC price could reach by looking at its past behaviour
Different scenarios
The chart above shows the levels XRP/BTC hit in the past bull markets. I’ve marked the different price levels and ranked them by likelihood.
Based on this, here are the possible scenarios for XRP's price, from least likely to most likely:
5) Very bearish scenario - XRP → $0.96
This scenario seems unlikely for a bull market. It means XRP would do a lot worse than Bitcoin. It’s been here only three times—twice during a bear market and once due to legal issues, but it still moved up from here every time.
4) Very bullish scenario - XRP → $24
XRP hit this level twice in 2017. But, no altcoin, except Dogecoin, has matched or beaten its previous high against Bitcoin, making this scenario less probable.
2b) Bullish scenario - XRP → $16
XRP/BTC has hit this level multiple times by massively outperforming BTC. But back then, XRP’s market cap was under $1b, now, it’s at $27b. To hit $16, it needs to outperform BTC by 5x which becomes very difficult at these market caps. However, ETH did manage this in the previous bull market, so it’s possible XRP could repeat the same feat.
2a) Bearish scenario - XRP → $2.4
This might seem bearish, but it’s a level we didn’t see in the last bull run. It’s a 5x from here, but it means XRP won’t outperform BTC. Most altcoins struggle against BTC in their 3rd cycles, and XRP will be in its 4th cycle next, so this scenario is plausible.
1) Realistic scenario - $5.6
This seems most likely. It doesn’t rely on XRP outdoing BTC massively but does set a new high. XRP was at this XRP/BTC level in 2021 despite challenges, making it a plausible target for the next bull run.
So, the most realistic scenario seems to be XRP hitting $5.6. I know it’s not $1000, but being objective is key! Remember, these scenarios depend on today’s XRP and Bitcoin prices. If XRP drops further against Bitcoin in the coming months, the scenarios might change.
Interested in making your own predictions and navigating the markets with confidence? You’re in luck! I’m hosting teaching sessions to guide you on how to analyze the markets and create your own predictions. Here’s some feedback from a current student:
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or any form of endorsement.
Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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